A Blog by the Editor of The Middle East Journal

Putting Middle Eastern Events in Cultural and Historical Context

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Waiting for the Amiri Movie: Double Agent or Not?

I've refrained from posting anything on the Shahram Amiri espionage soap opera because it's gotten lots of coverage elsewhere and I didn't have anything original in terms of knowledge to add. Apparent defector disappears, turns up in US; two different videos show up, one claiming he defected, one that he was kidnapped. Said defector then goes back to Iran, apparently giving up $5 million the US paid him. Claims he was tortured etc.; the US said he was working for them even before leaving Iran; but then Iran claims he was a double agent all along, and prepares to make a movie about him. In the aftermath it may be worth reflecting a bit on the still rather cloudy circumstances.

So what really went on? I have no idea, but if he really was an Iranian double agent, they seem to have put one over on the CIA and perhaps the Israelis as well. If the original defection was legitimate but he did just change his mind, why would Iran now say he was a double agent? Obviously, to discredit whatever information about the nuclear program he handed over. Even if the CIA still thinks he was sincere, the possibility that he was a plant will make it hard to be completely confident about the reliability of his information. And indeed, now there are reports the CIA suspects he was indeed a double agent.

If so, it suggests a real intelligence coup on the part of the Iranians. But what the real truth of the situation may be is still hard to determine. But the discrediting of his information, or at least raising questions about his reliability, is a coup for the Iranians even if the defection was originally genuine.

No comments: